Holistically compare the effectiveness of human services programs
Vulnerable people typically use services across multiple service domain, meaning their data crosses multiple government agencies. This can make it challenging to holistically compare the effectiveness of human services programs.
An investment approach to human services relies on a comparative assessment of the effectiveness of programs designed to deliver social and health outcomes and to quantify the likely impact of policy settings. To achieve these goals, the implementation of an investment approach would require the development of a comprehensive linked data asset and a projection model that could assess future service use and costs across those service domains and assess a variety of likely scenarios based on differences in outcome results across programs.
The Forecasting Future Outcomes (FFO) model was developed to support the implementation of an investment approach for human services in NSW that would direct and prioritise whole-of-government funding to deliver evidence-based solutions that achieve meaningful and measurable outcomes for vulnerable people in NSW.
The Forecasting Future Outcomes model does this by estimating avoided cost and expected return-on-investment relative to the cost of program delivery. It projects future service use and cost across the multiple service domains available in the data, focusing on vulnerable cohorts of children aged < 25 years and their families. The analysis relies on outcome evaluation results, including the Standardised Evaluation Analysis.
Achievements
The development of the Forecasting Future Outcomes model and the production of analysis contributed to two reports in 2018 and 2022. The model and analysis results and reports act as a main component of work contributing to an investment approach in NSW, informing the comparison of program effectiveness across human services programs. A third report for internal distribution is underway in 2024. The model and work will contribute to an iterative cycle of analysis to help inform policy direction to improve outcomes for people in NSW.
Engagement
The following stakeholders contribute to this model, each with a specific role:
- Multiple NSW Government agencies provide data for linkage
- Centre for Health Record Linkage (CHeReL) links data - the Human Services Dataset (HSDS). The HSDS contains de-identified administrative records from 12 NSW government agencies, including information on over 9 million people
- Commonwealth Government data is provided and linked by the Australian Bureau of Statistics
- Program areas in charge of human services programs such as family preservation and restoration programs
Department leading the project
NSW Government Actuary (NSW Department of Communities and Justice)